Measuring misconduct in financial markets

University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Business.Fair and efficient financial markets facilitate economic growth by providing funding for firms, investments for individuals, and risk allocation mechanisms. New technologies such as blockchains have the potential to improve these markets by providing more efficient settlements and a range of applications implemented in smart contracts. However, for financial markets and financial technologies to deliver their full potential, they must not only be efficient but also operate with a high level of integrity. This thesis takes the first step by measuring integrity in equity markets around the world and in the largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin. Using two independent empirical models, the thesis estimates that approximately one-quarter of all bitcoin users are involved in illegal activity and are responsible for one-half of all transactions in the bitcoin network, equivalent to a total value of $76 billion per year. Illegal users use bitcoin as a payment system rather than for speculation and take precautionary measures to conceal their activity. The thesis then develops measures of market integrity in equity markets based on the estimated frequency of insider trading and market manipulation and finds that developed countries exhibit high levels of integrity because of their resourceful regulatory bodies, low corruption levels, and rule-abiding societies

Sex, drugs, and bitcoin:How much illegal activity Is financed through cryptocurrencies?

© The Author(s) 2019. Cryptocurrencies are among the largest unregulated markets in the world. We find that approximately one-quarter of bitcoin users are involved in illegal activity.We estimate that around 76 billion of illegal activity per year involve bitcoin (46% of bitcoin transactions), which is close to the scale of the U.S. and European markets for illegal drugs. The illegal share of bitcoin activity declines with mainstream interest in bitcoin and with the emergence of more opaque cryptocurrencies. The techniques developed in this paper have applications in cryptocurrency surveillance. Our findings suggest that cryptocurrencies are transforming the black markets by enabling black e-commerce. (JEL G18, O31, O32, O33)

The ocean sampling day consortium

Ocean Sampling Day was initiated by the EU-funded Micro B3 (Marine Microbial Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Biotechnology) project to obtain a snapshot of the marine microbial biodiversity and function of the world’s oceans. It is a simultaneous global mega-sequencing campaign aiming to generate the largest standardized microbial data set in a single day. This will be achievable only through the coordinated efforts of an Ocean Sampling Day Consortium, supportive partnerships and networks between sites. This commentary outlines the establishment, function and aims of the Consortium and describes our vision for a sustainable study of marine microbial communities and their embedded functional traits

The immunobiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease histologically characterized by the presence of intrahepatic and/or extrahepatic biliary duct concentric, obliterative fibrosis, eventually leading to cirrhosis. Approximately 75% of patients with PSC have inflammatory bowel disease. The male predominance of PSC, the lack of a defined, pathogenic autoantigen, and the potential role of the innate immune system suggest that it may be due to dysregulation of immunity rather than a classic autoimmune disease. However, PSC is associated with several classic autoimmune diseases, and the strongest genetic link to PSC identified to date is with the human leukocyte antigen DRB01*03 haplotype. The precise immunopathogenesis of PSC is largely unknown but likely involves activation of the innate immune system by bacterial components delivered to the liver via the portal vein. Induction of adhesion molecules and chemokines leads to the recruitment of intestinal lymphocytes. Bile duct injury results from the sustained inflammation and production of inflammatory cytokines. Biliary strictures may cause further damage as a result of bile stasis and recurrent secondary bacterial cholangitis. Currently, there is no effective therapy for PSC and developing a rational therapeutic strategy demands a better understanding of the disease

Immune-related genetic enrichment in frontotemporal dementia:An analysis of genome-wide association studies

Background: Converging evidence suggests that immune-mediated dysfunction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Although genetic studies have shown that immune-associated loci are associated with increased FTD risk, a systematic investigation of genetic overlap between immune-mediated diseases and the spectrum of FTD-related disorders has not been performed. Methods and findings: Using large genome-wide association studies (GWASs) (total n = 192,886 cases and controls) and recently developed tools to quantify genetic overlap/pleiotropy, we systematically identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) jointly associated with FTD-related disorders—namely, FTD, corticobasal degeneration (CBD), progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)—and 1 or more immune-mediated diseases including Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis (UC), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), type 1 diabetes (T1D), celiac disease (CeD), and psoriasis. We found up to 270-fold genetic enrichment between FTD and RA, up to 160-fold genetic enrichment between FTD and UC, up to 180-fold genetic enrichment between FTD and T1D, and up to 175-fold genetic enrichment between FTD and CeD. In contrast, for CBD and PSP, only 1 of the 6 immune-mediated diseases produced genetic enrichment comparable to that seen for FTD, with up to 150-fold genetic enrichment between CBD and CeD and up to 180-fold enrichment between PSP and RA. Further, we found minimal enrichment between ALS and the immune-mediated diseases tested, with the highest levels of enrichment between ALS and RA (up to 20-fold). For FTD, at a conjunction false discovery rate < 0.05 and after excluding SNPs in linkage disequilibrium, we found that 8 of the 15 identified loci mapped to the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region on Chromosome (Chr) 6. We also found novel candidate FTD susceptibility loci within LRRK2 (leucine rich repeat kinase 2), TBKBP1 (TBK1 binding protein 1), and PGBD5 (piggyBac transposable element derived 5). Functionally, we found that the expression of FTD–immune pleiotropic genes (particularly within the HLA region) is altered in postmortem brain tissue from patients with FTD and is enriched in microglia/macrophages compared to other central nervous system cell types. The main study limitation is that the results represent only clinically diagnosed individuals. Also, given the complex interconnectedness of the HLA region, we were not able to define the specific gene or genes on Chr 6 responsible for our pleiotropic signal. Conclusions: We show immune-mediated genetic enrichment specifically in FTD, particularly within the HLA region. Our genetic results suggest that for a subset of patients, immune dysfunction may contribute to FTD risk. These findings have potential implications for clinical trials targeting immune dysfunction in patients with FTD

The Ocean Sampling Day Consortium

Ocean Sampling Day was initiated by the EU-funded Micro B3 (Marine Microbial Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Biotechnology) project to obtain a snapshot of the marine microbial biodiversity and function of the world’s oceans. It is a simultaneous global mega-sequencing campaign aiming to generate the largest standardized microbial data set in a single day. This will be achievable only through the coordinated efforts of an Ocean Sampling Day Consortium, supportive partnerships and networks between sites. This commentary outlines the establishment, function and aims of the Consortium and describes our vision for a sustainable study of marine microbial communities and their embedded functional traits

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)